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Trump and the Markets: Hope, Hype, and Uncertainty

The Trump Era Begins

Well, here we are. A new era—kind of. Donald Trump is now President-Elect. Like most things, my interest in this only stretches as far as its impact on investing and money. From Peter Thiel to Bill Ackman, everyone seems to have an opinion on what Trump means for the markets.

Trump is, in many ways, a political chameleon. To some, he’s a champion of deregulation; to others, he’s a populist wildcard. He’s the St. Nicholas of politics: he might bring you gifts, or he might throw you in a sack and ship you to Spain. Depends on who you ask.

Will he privatize Freddie Mac? Build a wall? Reinstate the gold standard?
He’s made every possible statement on these topics. It’s confusing, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Investors have decided to hear what they want. Just the idea of Trump in office has been enough to rally markets.

In short: the markets are running on hopes and dreams.

Last week, while my kids watched the “Supermoon,” I brought them inside to show them stock charts. They weren’t impressed. Maybe I’ve raised them to be more emotionally stable investors than I am.

What’s Next for the SEC?

With SEC Chair Mary Jo White stepping down at the end of Obama’s term, three out of five commissioner seats will be vacant. This gives Trump a rare opportunity to significantly reshape the SEC.

He’s already tapped former commissioner Paul Atkins to help lead the transition. And while there’s a lot of buzz about dismantling Dodd-Frank, the actual details remain foggy—typical Trump style.

Here’s where it gets interesting:

  • Dismantling Dodd-Frank would mean rolling back major reforms like the Volcker Rule and mortgage restrictions.

  • Reinstating Glass-Steagall is another Trump promise (or lore, depending on your perspective). But Glass-Steagall was repealed in 1999—many voters and analysts don’t fully connect that to the current regulatory environment.

The fun part? People only hear what they want:

  • Trump says he’ll dismantle Dodd-Frank → Conservatives cheer.

  • Trump mentions Glass-Steagall → Liberals hear “more regulation.”

  • Everyone’s happy… or confused. Usually both.

To illustrate: If I told my kids we’re going to the movies to watch a documentary, they’d hear “movies!” and start asking for popcorn and Trolls 3.

Facebook and Fake News

So why are so many people confused by Trump’s positions? Part of the blame lies with Facebook.

Nearly 44% of Americans get their news from Facebook, which is now flooded with fake news. Not satire—real-looking, misleading, agenda-driven headlines that often go viral before the truth has a chance.

Facebook tried to fight this, but found that cracking down on fake news disproportionately affected right-leaning sites. Concerned about appearing biased, they scrapped the effort—just in time for the post-election finger pointing.

Zuckerberg dismissed the idea that fake news tipped the election, calling it “a pretty crazy idea.” And honestly, he’s not wrong.

What’s the goal here, anyway? Undo the election? Shut down Facebook? Make Mark Zuckerberg apologize on behalf of the internet?

Here’s the reality:
It doesn’t matter if Trump supporters got their news from a talking donkey under a pear tree. He won.
No number of apologies or algorithm tweaks is going to change that.

Final Thought

This all feels like a whirlwind—and in many ways, it is. Markets are optimistic. Regulations are uncertain. Social media is under fire. But amidst the chaos, one thing is clear: we’re in uncharted waters, and the maps are still being drawn.

 

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Categories: Industry Ideas, News, The Market

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